Biggest Rushing Yardage Prop Moves and What They Mean for Fantasy
On Thursday, we went over the notable odds shifts at sportsbooks (75 yards or more) on season-long receiving yardage props. Simply put, we want to try and gain insight as to what the smartest NFL bettors in the world believe about how wideouts and tight ends will fare this upcoming season.
Now we’ll do the same thing for season-long rushing yards that have moved by at least 75 yards from their opener. If you’re not as familiar with how sports betting works, let’s say FanDuel has Bijan Robinson at 1200.5 for his season-long rushing yardage prop. If you bet over 1200.5, you’d need Robinson to finish with 1,201 rushing yards or more during the regular season to win your bet. With under 1200.5, Robinson would have to end up with 1,200 rushing yards or fewer.
To help identify potential players to draft and fade, I looked at the odds history for every season-long player prop at FanDuel and DraftKings (using a sports betting tool called Unabated) and took note of every notable move from the opening (original) number for season-long rushing props.
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For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.
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Obvious Moves from Team Roster Changes/Suspensions/Injuries
Tony Pollard 875.5>975.5>950.5 (FanDuel)
This movement is clearly due to the Tyjae Spears injury, as Spears will miss at least the first four games of the season with an ankle injury. In the four games that Spears missed last season, Pollard averaged 116.2 yards per game. He is going to dominate backfield touches early in the season and he’ll get to do with a massive upgrade at quarterback with Cam Ward (instead of last year’s duo of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph). I’m bullish on the Titans overall this season, and I’d be happy if I left my draft with Pollard as my RB2.
Unfavorable Backfield Splits Ahead?
Breece Hall 950.5>850.5 (FanDuel)
Aaron Jones 775.5>700.5 (FanDuel)
Rhamondre Stevenson 700.5>625.5 (DraftKings)
Javonte Williams 575.5>500.5 (DraftKings)
These are veteran running backs who were once very early fantasy picks and now reside in the dead zone. Keep in mind that these props were first released after Jordan Mason was traded to the Vikings and after the NFL Draft. So bettors are even more pessimistic about these rushing totals with exciting younger backs (Mason, TreVeyon Henderson, Jaydon Blue) waiting in the wings.
Breece Hall has the highest ADP (45.7 on Underdog) of this bunch, and he’s also one of two players whose season-long rushing yardage prop has dropped by 100 yards. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his rookie season before his torn ACL and has put up 4.5 and 4.2 YPC in the following two seasons. He just doesn’t look like he has the same explosiveness.
New head coach Aaron Glenn has stated that he wants to utilize all three Jets running backs (Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis). He saw an RB committee work beautifully while he was the defensive coordinator in Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. If Hall is splitting reps on a Jets team that projects to be one of the lower-scoring teams in the NFL, there just isn’t that much upside to be excited about. I’m not interested in taking Hall in the fourth round in fantasy drafts.
Rookie Ramblings
TreVeyon Henderson 625.5>700.5 (FanDuel)
Kaleb Johnson 750.5>675.5 (DraftKings)
I would argue that Henderson was the biggest non-injury fantasy winner this preseason. He looked like he was playing at a different speed compared to everyone else on the field. Bettors are clearly drinking the Kool-Aid as well with Henderson.
Are you nervous about drafting a player (Henderson has a 42.8 Underdog ADP) in the third or fourth round with a season-long rushing yardage total at 700.5? No one sees Henderson as an immediate bell cow with Rhamondre Stevenson on the team, but he can definitely pay off at that price since he’s also a receiving threat. Running backs have posted big receiving numbers in Josh McDaniels’ offenses before (with James White being the prime example), and Henderson showed strong receiving chops at Ohio State. He looks like a special talent, and I’m taking him over Breece Hall every time. In full PPR leagues, I don’t think it’s crazy to take Henderson over guys like James Cook (39.3 ADP) or Kyren Williams (31.5 ADP).
Kaleb Johnson, on the other hand, has not been getting the same rookie buzz. Fantasy owners were probably already wary about the fact that the Steelers’ third-round pick is playing in an Arthur Smith offense. After all, this is the same guy who coached Bijan Robinson in his rookie campaign, and Robinson only finished with 976 rushing yards after being stuck in a committee (compared to 1,456 in Year 2).
It’s interesting to note that Jaylen Warren’s season-long rushing yardage prop has stayed put at 600.5 despite Johnson’s dropping 75 yards. We know how much Aaron Rodgers likes throwing to running backs, and Warren is certainly a capable pass-catcher. He’s also one of the better pass-blocking tailbacks in the NFL. We’ll see how much playing time Johnson gets, but bettors clearly aren’t super optimistic about his situation.
Saquon Sequel?
Saquon Barkley 1485.5>1375.5 (FanDuel)
The biggest season-long rushing yards shift belongs to Barkley, as it’s dropped 110 yards from the opener. He still has the highest season-long rushing yards prop of any player, with Derrick Henry coming in second at 1325.5.
People are nervous about Barkley with all the touches he racked up last season, and there hasn’t been a running back who has run for 1,500 yards the season after rushing for 2,000 yards (the closest was Barry Sanders at 1,491 in 1998). But 1,500 is an incredibly tough number for any running back to reach; only Barkley (2,008) and Henry (1,921) did so last season. No one reached that mark the season before.
Barkley is still 28 years old, and I think he’ll have more receiving upside with the Eagles facing a tougher schedule this season. If you remove the Eagles’ Week 18 win when they rested all their starters against the Giants, nine of their other 17 wins last season were by double digits. They didn’t need to throw as much in the fourth quarter, and that likely won’t be the case with a schedule that features 11 games against teams in the top 14 in Super Bowl odds.
There are risks with the other top running backs too. We don’t know how the Lions offense will look without Ben Johnson. The Falcons offensive line has already had a couple key injuries. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson will cede more touches to David Montgomery and Tyler Allgeier than Barkley will to any other Eagle. In half-PPR leagues, I’m taking Barkley over Robinson and Gibbs. Even though his season-long rushing yardage prop has dropped considerably, he’s still the betting favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards and I still have a lot of trust in the Eagles offense.
Dual-Threat Quarterbacks
Justin Fields 575.5>650.5 (DraftKings)
Drake Maye 425.5>500.5 (DraftKings)
In leagues that award four points for passing touchdowns (and not six), quarterbacks with strong rushing production reign supreme. That’s the big reason why Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts are your top four quarterbacks.
But for cheaper quarterback options, Fields and Maye are two that I like. Maye showed immense promise in his rookie season despite everything else with the Patriots looking like a disaster. Fields is a better fantasy quarterback than real-life quarterback, but there is certainly a chance that he could finish with the most rushing yards of any signal-caller. Only Lamar Jackson (775.5) and Jayden Daniels (675.5) have higher season-long rushing yardage props than Fields.
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