Using Sportsbook Prop Odds Movement for Fantasy Draft Intel (WR/TE edition)
Fantasy football and sports betting go hand in hand, especially with how popular player prop betting has become at sportsbooks. Many of the top sportsbooks offer season-long player props ahead of opening kickoff, meaning you can wager on whether a player goes over or under his yardage or touchdown market for the regular season.
For example, FanDuel has Ja’Marr Chase’s season-long receiving yards prop at 1325.5. If you bet Chase over 1325.5 yards, he needs to have 1326 receiving yards or more during the regular season to win your bet. If you opt for Chase under 1325.5 yards, you need Chase to finish with 1325 receiving yards or fewer.
As someone who worked at sportsbooks for five years, I can tell you that prop markets (including season-long props) are softer than other markets such as straight bets (spread, moneyline, total). That means that sportsbooks have lower limits (the maximum amount you can wager) on player props and it doesn’t take nearly as much for player prop odds to move compared to an NFL game spread.
But I still think it’s interesting to see the odds moves for these season-long player props, because it gives good insight into what some of the best bettors in the world are thinking. Additionally, we can use these insights to our advantage, especially for those who have drafts coming up over the next week.
So I looked at the odds history for every season-long player prop at FanDuel and DraftKings (using a sports betting tool called Unabated) and took note of every move that was at least 75.5 yards from the opening (original) number. For today, let’s look at the notable season-long receiving yards moves. Make sure to subscribe to Fantom Thoughts to see the post on notable season-long rushing yards moves later this week.
Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. We offer markets such as matchup moneylines, alternate spreads, highest-scoring team in your league each week, and even alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.
For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.
Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at https://www.fantomodds.com. I’d imagine people reading this post are definitely interested in fantasy football and at least somewhat interested in sports betting, so why not bring a new sports betting element to your fantasy football leagues? Anyway, onto the notable odds shifts for season-long receiving props.
Obvious Moves from Team Roster Changes/Suspensions/Injuries
Emeka Egbuka 650.5>825.5 (FanDuel)
Mike Evans 875.5>1000.5 (FanDuel)
Ricky Pearsall 750.5>875.5 (DraftKings)
Jordan Addison 775.5>650.5 (DraftKings)
Xavier Worthy 800.5>900.5>875.5 (FanDuel)
Egbuka has been one of the biggest ADP movers in fantasy football, and it’s the same with his season-long receiving yards prop. He and Evans are the likely benefactors while Chris Godwin works his way back from a dislocated ankle injury and Jalen McMillan is sidelined with a severely sprained neck.
Pearsall is interesting, and it feels like many fantasy owners are opting for Egbuka over Pearsall of late with their current ADPs quite similar (Pearsall is 59.3 on Underdog, Egbuka is 59.5—and I bet Egbuka has a better ADP before the season kicks off). But Pearsall’s season-long receiving yards prop is 50 yards higher than Egbuka’s, and keep in mind that those odds were first released after the 49ers traded Deebo Samuel. But with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings’ early-season statuses in question, bettors have been zeroing in on the second-year wideout. To compare, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop has actually dropped (950.5 to 900.5 on FanDuel) and Christian McCaffrey’s has slightly increased (400.5 to 425.5 on FD).
Addison’s three-game suspension is the reason for his prop falling, while Worthy’s reached as high as 900.5 before coming back down slightly to 875.5—I’m assuming that’s because there were rumors that Rashee Rice would be suspended for as many as eight games and he ended up getting suspended for six.
Same Team, but Different Directions
DJ Moore 1025.5>950.5 (FanDuel)
Rome Odunze 800.5>875.5 (DraftKings)
Tyreek Hill 1025.5>950.5 (FanDuel)
Jaylen Waddle 850.5>925.5 (DraftKings)
The vibes surrounding Hill have not been good this entire offseason, and his fantasy ADP and season-long receiving yards prop movements reflect that. But even with those changes, Hill (Underdog ADP 26.7) is still a much more expensive pick than Waddle (Underdog ADP 55.0) despite their receiving yardage props being separated by a mere 25 yards. For me, I’m fading Hill in the third round of my drafts and strongly buying Waddle in the fifth (I’d be interested in the late fourth too).
The ADP gap between Moore (48.8) and Odunze (63.5) is closer than Hill and Waddle’s, even though their receiving yard props are separated by 75 yards (while Hill and Waddle are separated by 25). The target competition for the Bears has gone up with Chicago adding Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III in the draft, so it’s interesting to see Odunze’s season-long prop increase by 75 yards.
Former OPOY and an OPOY Darkhorse
Cooper Kupp 775.5>675.5 (DraftKings)
Drake London 1025.5>1125.5 (FanDuel)
It’s pretty crazy that Kupp won Offensive Player of the Year in 2021, as it feels much longer ago than that. He’s missed at least five games in each of the next three seasons and now gets a chance to restart with a new NFC West team in the Seahawks. Kupp’s injury history and age (32) are already two major negatives, but I’m not sold on his quarterback situation either. I’m curious to see how Sam Darnold looks without quarterback guru Kevin O’Connell as his head coach. If Darnold bombs, the Seahawks just drafted Jalen Milroe in the third round. Milroe is a threat with his legs but is more of a raw passer. It’d be a disaster for Kupp (and Jaxon Smith-Njibga) if Milroe gets any time at quarterback this season. For me, Kupp is a complete fade this season.
After opening at 1025.5, London at 1125.5 has a higher season-long receiving yards prop than Amon-Ra St. Brown (1075.5), the same as AJ Brown (1125.5) and awfully close to Malik Nabers (1150.5), Brian Thomas Jr. (1150.5) and Nico Collins (1150.5). London averaged 117.3 receiving yards per game in three Michael Penix Jr. starts last season compared to 65.6 in the 14 Kirk Cousins starts. He isn’t getting the same fantasy love as some other early wideouts, but based on his sportsbook odds and prop movement, you can argue he deserves to be in at least the same breath as any wideout for fantasy not named Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. I think London at 50/1 for OPOY is a very solid longshot bet (currently available at DraftKings).
The Only Tight End
Tyler Warren 500.5>575.5 (DraftKings)
Warren joins Egbuka as the rookies that are the major movers for season-long receiving yards props. But while Egbuka’s shift was largely due to other injuries, Warren has looked like a bonafide star in the preseason and could end up being the Colts’ No. 1 target in their passing attack. While it’s an offense quarterbacked by Daniel Jones (and maybe Anthony Richardson at some point), Warren offers an upside that few other tight ends can match.
Now should there be a notable ADP gap between Warren (91.6) and the other first-round rookie tight end, Colston Loveland (109.4)? After all, Warren and Loveland both have receiving yard props of 575.5 at DraftKings. Loveland’s receiving yards prop is actually wildly different across the board, though. If you want a decent middle opportunity, you can take Loveland over 550.5 yards (-114) at FanDuel and Loveland under 625.5 yards (-120) at Caesars.
Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for all of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.