Why Darnell Mooney Is a League-Winning Pick in Fantasy Football Drafts

I’m a big fan of drafting running backs early in fantasy drafts this year, simply because there are so many wide receivers I like in the middle and later rounds. As we enter the final few days of fantasy drafts before the NFL season kicks off, there is one wideout in particular whose draft price is very puzzling to me—Darnell Mooney.

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For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at www.fantomodds.com. Now I’ll explain why Mooney is one of the best later-round picks you can make in your fantasy drafts.

Mooney’s preseason ranking is currently 130 on Yahoo and 110 on ESPN, and his average ADP on Underdog is 104.0. Yes, Mooney is not 100% healthy since he’s been sidelined with a shoulder injury since July. But this does not appear to be a long-term injury, as Falcons coach Raheem Morris even said on Monday that Mooney is “day to day.” He’s going after other wideouts with more concerning injury question marks, like Chris Godwin and Jayden Reed.

Outside of an injury that won’t cause Mooney to miss much time in the regular season, if any time at all, there is certainly a lot to like about a wide receiver you can get in a double-digit round.

Let’s start with his production last year. After Mooney had six catches for 142 yards in Week 14 against the Vikings, he was eighth in the NFL in receiving yards with 873. In ninth place was Drake London at 866. Let me emphasize this even more: Heading into Week 15 (in the middle of December) last season, Mooney led the Falcons in receiving yards and only seven NFL wideouts had more receiving yards than him (Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Jeudy, JSN, McLaurin and Garrett Wilson).

London had more receptions and the edge in receiving touchdowns (six to Mooney’s five) after Week 14, but the overall gap between these two was not significant. If you want to cut it down the middle and use half-PPR, in games that Mooney and London played together last season, London was the WR20 and Mooney was the WR35. Using Underdog ADP for this upcoming season, London is the WR9 and Mooney is the WR52. I like London a lot for this season, but that gap should not be what it is, and I think Mooney should be selected much earlier in fantasy drafts.

Let’s discuss why I’m bullish on Mooney for this season, though. This is Mooney’s second year with the Falcons and in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s offense. Michael Penix Jr. was Atlanta’s starting quarterback to end last season, and I think his tendencies suit Mooney well. According to Pro Football Focus, Mooney had the third-most catches (14) on deep attempts in the entire NFL last season, and that was obviously mostly with Cousins throwing to him. In Penix Jr.’s three games last season, he ranked first in big throw rate (9.4%) and average depth of target (10.6). Penix Jr. likes to air it out, and Mooney is the clear top option to be his favorite deep threat.

Mooney doesn’t have much competition among the Falcons’ pass-catchers. London is the obvious No. 1. The No. 3 wideout is Ray-Ray McCloud after the Falcons surprisingly didn’t add to their receiving corps this offseason. There’s tight end Kyle Pitts, but Mooney crushed him in targets (106 to 74) in 2024 despite playing one fewer game.

Atlanta also has a favorable schedule, as the Falcons will play 12 games in a dome this season and nine of their games come against opponents who ranked in the bottom third (No. 21-32) in defensive EPA/pass in 2024.

There are just a lot of positives for Mooney’s fantasy case, and you can still grab him in a double-digit round. He may not be the sexiest name, but he is someone who can be the second pass-catching option in a very explosive offense. In Mooney’s top two seasons, his quarterbacks most of the time were Justin Fields and a past-his-prime Kirk Cousins. I think Penix Jr. is a big upgrade over both of them, and that Mooney will handsomely pay off at his ADP price because of it.

Mooney is projected for 9.5 PPR points on Yahoo for Week 1 when the Falcons face the Buccaneers. In his two battles against Tampa Bay last season, Mooney had 9-105-2 and 4-86-1 efforts. With both defenses having a fair share of question marks, this game in the dome has shootout written all over it. If Mooney plays (and it’s trending that way), I like him to go OVER 13.1 PPR points at +203 odds via Fantom Odds in Week 1.

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