Using Notable Sportsbook Yardage Prop Movement for Start/Sit Decisions for Cowboys vs. Eagles
The NFL season is finally here. I will be doing start/sit pieces on the blog, but they will be a little bit different from the other ones out there.
First, these will be geared toward deeper leagues, so you won’t see something like, “Should you start or sit George Pickens against the Eagles?” These will be players that I think are legitimate interesting decisions in 12-team leagues with multiple flex spots.
Second, these will be a mix of sportsbook analysis with a little bit of my opinion mixed in for these start/sit decisions. I’m just a random fantasy lover who enjoys thoughtful write-ups, but I don’t expect my word alone to be gospel. So I will also be looking at line movement at sportsbooks to help determine if these players are worthy starts or sits.
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For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.
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Anyway, here is a start suggestion and a sit suggestion from me for Cowboys vs. Eagles.
START: Jake Ferguson
This was almost Dallas Goedert, as Goedert’s receiving yardage line has been bet up from 34.5 to 39.5 at FanDuel. There’s been over money on his receptions prop as well, going from 3.5 (over +106/under -140) to 3.5 (over -128/under -100). Moving the number on a reception prop (like 3.5 to 4.5) is a much bigger deal than moving a yardage prop a couple yards, so it’s a notable 34-cent move on that over.
But with Goedert, the thing I couldn’t shake is that his numbers weren’t nearly as good last year when AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were both healthy. When Brown and Smith both played, Goedert had 4.0 receptions and 47 receiving yards per game. When at least one of them was out, Goedert put up 5.4 receptions and 65 receiving yards per game. Starting Goedert isn’t the end of the world, but I prefer Ferguson here.
Like Goedert, Ferguson has seen over money come in on both his receiving yards prop (opened 33.5, went to as low as 32.5 and is now 36.5 at FanDuel) and his receptions prop (was 3.5 -114/-114 on Aug. 24, it’s now 3.5 -154/+120).
Ferguson finished with 24 receiving yards, which actually led the Cowboys, in his first meeting with the Eagles last season and then followed that up with 18 yards. Both of those, though, were with Cooper Rush at quarterback with Dak Prescott on injured reserve, so I’m not taking those results into account. The Eagles have great corners in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, but they’re going to be mostly occupied with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. I think that will open things up for Ferguson.
The Cowboys are 8.5-point road underdogs and Dak Prescott’s passing yardage prop (243.5 to 251.5) and pass attempts prop (35.5 to 36.5) have both been bet up. With the projected game script and the Cowboys’ current offensive personnel, it’s easy to envision Dallas throwing the ball a lot this game. I think Ferguson will have a productive evening and is worth a start.
Ferguson is projected for 8.4 PPR points in Yahoo for Week 1. On Fantom Odds, his odds are +203 if he scores more than 12 points. It may take garbage time, but I think he gets there.
SIT: Javonte Williams
Owners in more shallow leagues may be laughing at this one, but Williams is ranked 118th on Yahoo and could very well be in consideration for a flex spot for someone who rolled the dice on a suspended player or waited too long at running back. He is, after all, Dallas’ Week 1 starting running back, so on paper, I do see the potential appeal on the surface for favoring him over other flex options. Also, it’s fun having a player on your fantasy team on opening night of the NFL season.
When DraftKings first released player props for this game on Aug. 23, Williams’ rushing yards prop opened at 34.5. He was bet up to 42.5 on Aug. 26. Jaydon Blue’s low right ankle sprain that he suffered on Aug. 22 was likely the key factor there, as bettors were expecting a bigger role for Williams in Week 1.
But Williams’ rushing yards prop is now back down, as it’s been bouncing between 33.5 and 34.5 throughout the day at DraftKings. Blue is no longer listed on the injury report, and he’s a real threat to have a meaningful role in this game. Williams’ rushing attempts prop has also been bet down from 11.5 to 9.5 at DraftKings, which is also concerning for fantasy owners.
Williams just hasn’t had the same burst since his torn ACL in his second season in 2022. The Eagles also allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs last season. The Eagles also led the NFL in time of possession last season. This could very well be a game where the Eagles (as a big favorite) dominate the snaps and are up by a considerable amount, meaning fewer opportunities for Williams. This is already an ugly committee between Williams, Blue and Myles Sanders, and this isn’t the defense I want to roll the dice with on one of them.
Williams is currently +200 to score a touchdown tonight on FanDuel. He’s projected for 11.4 PPR points in Yahoo for Week 1 as well. If you don’t think he scores a touchdown, which I don’t think he will, an alternative under of 7.9 points at +201 odds looks like a good value to me at Fantom Odds.
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