Should You Start or Sit Struggling Wideouts like Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 4?

We’ve entered Week 4 of the NFL season, and there are certainly many players that fantasy owners are panicking about after using early- or mid-round picks on them. But should you bench these struggling players in Week 4?

I have found three wide receivers who have struggled to start the season and who have seen their receiving yardage props already move significantly at sportsbooks for their Week 4 games (using a tool called Unabated to track odds movements throughout the week). I’m just a random fantasy lover who enjoys thoughtful write-ups, but I don’t expect my word alone to be gospel. I’d rather trust the smartest NFL bettors in the world who are putting real money down and moving these player prop lines.

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So here are two wideouts whose receiving yardage props have been bet up significantly and one who has already been bet down.

Ladd McConkey 58.5>57.5>63.5 (DraftKings)

McConkey was a second- or third-round pick in most fantasy drafts this season, with the premise that he would be the target hog for an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert. The good news is that the Chargers offense has been much more pass-heavy than anticipated, as they lead the entire NFL in pass rate over expectations. The bad news is that the competition for targets has been much stronger than what we thought.

Through the first three weeks, McConkey is third in targets (21) on the team, behind Keenan Allen (28) and Quentin Johnston (24). But per Fantasy Points Data, it’s a lot closer when it comes to first-read target shares, with Johnston (26.0%) barely edging out McConkey (24.7%) and Allen (23.4%).

McConkey has failed to reach 10 PPR points (5-48-0 in Week 2, 4-41-0 in Week 3) in consecutive weeks, but his receiving yardage prop has already been bet up from as low as 57.5 yards all the way up to 63.5 on DraftKings. For reference, Quentin Johnson’s prop sits at 53.5 and Keenan Allen’s is at 48.5.

I’m bullish on McConkey because he’s damn talented and an excellent route runner, and now he gets to play in a pass-heavy attack. Three weeks isn’t the biggest sample size, and target rates can certainly flip depending on a particular matchup. New York has a solid front seven but a weaker secondary, as the Giants have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts so far this season.

I’d imagine owners were begrudgingly starting McConkey in PPR leagues already for Week 4, while owners in standard leagues may have been debating it after three subpar-to-mediocre weeks from McConkey. I’d play him in every league this week, and I also think he gets his first touchdown of the season in this contest.

You can take McConkey over 16.0 ESPN PPR points at +212 on Fantom Odds with your leaguemates, and I think that’s a number he will exceed in Week 4.

Brian Thomas Jr. 66.5>59.5 (DraftKings)

Thomas Jr. may be the biggest enigma in fantasy football so far this season. After an insane rookie year, BTJ had a low first-round/high second-round ADP and many people were excited to see what he could do in a Liam Coen offense. BTJ ranks in the top 20 in targets, so he’s getting opportunities; he’s simply not making anything of those opportunities.

BTJ has been targeted 25 times this season and has just seven receptions. That 28% catch rate is historically low, as BTJ’s 28% ranks dead last among 522 pass-catchers who have seen at least 25+ targets through three weeks.

I think there are a couple reasons for this. BTJ has now played 13 games with Trevor Lawrence and has averaged 60 receiving yards in those contests. In 10 games with Mac Jones, BTJ has averaged 76 receiving yards. I also think BTJ’s wrist injury is worse than what’s being reported, as he’s been shying away from contact, and his alligator arms have been leading to killer drops.

The 49ers defense suffered a major blow, losing superstar pass-rusher Nick Bosa for the season with a torn ACL, but this is still a very talented unit led by sharp defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. If BTJ couldn’t do much against weaker units (1-11-0 against Panthers in Week 1, 4-49-0 against Bengals in Week 2), why should we trust him to turn things around here?

BTJ’s receiving yardage prop has already been bet down from 66.5 to 59.5 at DraftKings, so bettors aren’t the most optimistic about a Week 4 breakout. If you have another legit flex option, that player could be worth starting over BTJ this week. For reference, wide receivers like Jakobi Meyers (64.5) and Chris Olave (60.5) now have higher receiving yardage props for Week 4 at DraftKings compared to BTJ.

You can take BTJ under 11.0 ESPN PPR points at +201 on Fantom Odds. BTJ hasn’t hit double digits yet this season in PPR, and I don’t think he does it in Week 4 either.

Matthew Golden 34.5>44.5 (FanDuel)

Golden is the fringe starter that I have the strongest conviction for in Week 4. After compiling route rates of just 56% in Week 1 and 67% in Week 2, that number jumped all the way up to 83% in Week 3 in Green Bay’s first game without an injured Jayden Reed. The first-round rookie set career-best marks in receptions (4) and receiving yards (52) in that Week 3 performance against the Browns, and I think his arrow is pointing way up going forward—especially on Sunday night against a putrid Cowboys defense.

Teams have already completed 11 passes (on 16 attempts) 20+ yards through the air against this Cowboys defense, and those 11 completions have gone for 444 yards and five touchdowns. The next-worst team on deep passes of 20+ yards through the air is the Patriots at 230 yards surrendered, per Fantasy Points Data. Going against the Cowboys will be a fantasy goldmine all season long, and this seems like a perfect spot for Golden to get his first career NFL touchdown.

Golden’s receiving yardage prop at FanDuel has already been bet up from 34.5 to 44.5, the biggest swing on any receiving prop so far for Week 4. Whether you’re in a standard or PPR league, make sure to get Golden in your starting lineup this week.

I’m a big believer that Golden absolutely smashes on Sunday night, and you can take over 15.0 PPR points for him at +228 at Fantom Odds. If you wanted an even bigger longer shot, Golden over 20.0 PPR points sits at +602.

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