Isaiah Bond is Here to Save Desperate Fantasy Managers in Week 5
It’s only Week 5, but with the rash of injuries and the first bye week of the season, there are already many fantasy owners tossing Hail Marys in their starting lineups. We saw one actually work out on Thursday night, with Kendrick Bourne snagging 10 receptions for 142 yards in the 49ers’ victory over the Rams.
So what can we learn from this if we need to roll the dice on another player this week? There was a good amount of uncertainty surrounding the 49ers’ offensive situation, which I would argue is a good thing for a Hail Mary-type play.
San Francisco had backup quarterback Mac Jones under center and was missing several top targets (Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle)—all of which opened the door for Bourne. It also helped that mastermind Kyle Shanahan was the one calling the plays.
With that in mind, my favorite Hail Mary play for the rest of Week 5 is Isaiah Bond.
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Anyway, back to Bond. There are already some encouraging signs for the rookie wideout, as Bond led the Browns with 58 receiving yards in Week 4. He ran 27 routes on Cleveland’s 37 dropbacks for that game. With Cedric Tillman on IR, Bond is likely now operating as the Browns’ No. 2 wide receiver.
Tillman led the entire NFL in routes run over the first two weeks of the season, and No. 1 wideout Jerry Jeudy was third overall in routes run heading into Week 5. Bond will have a big role, but will it lead to strong fantasy production?
Obviously there are uncertainties, which could give Bond even more upside or could end up leading to more downside. Dillon Gabriel makes his NFL debut, and it comes against a tough Brian Flores-called defense. But with an unknown commodity like a rookie QB making his debut, it ends up leading to higher variance—which is what I prefer from my Hail Mary play compared to a known situation.
The Browns committed real resources to both Gabriel and Bond. Gabriel was a third-round pick in this past NFL Draft. Bond was an UDFA because of legal issues, but Cleveland gave him an unprecedented $3 million guaranteed, a wildly high number for someone who wasn’t drafted. Kevin Stefanski obviously has some belief in the two of them, and he is in the circle of trust among head coaches who also call the plays. The Browns are in a full-blown rebuild, and they’re going to see what they have with rookies Gabriel, Bond, Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. for the rest of the season.
Betting on a Cleveland receiver doesn’t feel the best, but the bar is low for Gabriel to be an upgrade over Joe Flacco. The Browns did not score more than 17 points in any of the first four games this season with Flacco under center, as the 40-year-old QB had a miserable -0.33 EPA/play (expected points added per play), the worst mark of any NFL QB this season with at least 100 snaps.
Bond currently leads the Browns in average separation, thanks to his 4.3 speed. He was always viewed as a talented prospect and actually led Texas in yards per route run (2.68) last season when he was healthy, even over first-round teammate Matthew Golden (2.03).
Between his obvious talent and his current projected role, Bond is worth a roll of the dice for Week 5 if you’re trying to figure out an empty spot in your starting lineup. His receiving yardage prop has already been bet up from 25.5 to 28.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning there are bettors who are bullish on Bond against the Vikings as well. If Gabriel ends up being better than expected, Bond could end up being a steal for the rest of the season.
Bond is currently listed at +200 to score more than 11.8 PPR points on Yahoo at Fantom Odds for Week 5, and I like him to exceed that amount.
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