Fantasy Football Sleepers: Players Who Can Shatter NFL Week 1 Projections
Which players are undervalued ahead of Week 1 of the fantasy football season?
Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues for you and your leaguemates to use. One of our markets is alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.
For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.
Up until opening kickoff, I’ll be sharing Week 1 sleepers and busts (for shallow and deep leagues) that I like to either greatly exceed or greatly disappoint compared to their projections—and potentially use as a longshot on Fantom Odds (make sure to sign up for completely free Fantom Odds access at www.fantomodds.com). Let’s start off with two Week 1 sleepers today.
Shallow leagues: Matthew Golden OVER 19.0 fantasy points +502 (Yahoo)
Golden is projected for 10.78 PPR points on Yahoo, but I think the rookie wideout could be in for a big debut. After all, Golden was the Packers’ first wideout to be taken in the first round since the 2002 NFL Draft (Javon Walker).
Not only has Golden been getting rave reviews at training camp and in the preseason, but the other Green Bay wideouts are dropping like flies. Jayden Reed (foot), Romeo Doubs (back) and Dontayvion Wicks (calf) have all been sidelined, while Christian Watson is still recovering from a late-season ACL injury last year. That has allowed Golden to get more reps in with the first team, and he’s been on the field in the Packers’ two-wideout sets (the formation Jayden Reed has notably been absent for).
Golden also gets a potentially juicy matchup against the Lions. The Lions’ defense was decimated by injuries last season, and they’ve already lost second-year cornerback Ennis Rakestraw for this season. Since mid-July, Detroit has added five cornerbacks to the roster, as the team is still trying to juggle its pieces in the secondary.
Lions-Packers has the second-highest Week 1 total (over/under 49.5 points), only behind Ravens-Bills at 51.5. This could certainly be a shootout, and I think Jordan Love and the Green Bay passing attack will bounce back after Love was hurt throughout last season. Love has returned from thumb surgery, and I think Golden will continue to develop a good rapport with him with the other wideouts nursing injuries.
Deep leagues: Cedric Tillman OVER 14.7 fantasy points +513 (Yahoo)
The Browns’ receivers got some good news this week that Joe Flacco will be the Week 1 starter. Flacco may be 40 years old, but he can still sling the pigskin around. The Browns offense certainly isn’t a sexy one to the fantasy masses, but this group could have sneaky upside potential against a Bengals defense that appears to be a mess once again.
Tillman flashed in his second season in Cleveland, as he had a three-game stretch of 8-81-0 (against the Bengals), 7-99-2 (against the Ravens) and 6-75-1 (against the Chargers) with gunslinger Jameis Winston under center for the last two games. Tillman suffered a concussion that caused him to miss the final six games of the 2024 season and has turned him into a bit of an afterthought among the fantasy community ahead of the 2025 campaign.
Tillman has shown that he can emerge as a top option, and I’m definitely a lot more intrigued by the Browns’ passing attack with Flacco compared to if Cleveland opted for Kenny Pickett as the Week 1 starter. There should be a lot of Bengals shootouts this year, and there could be early fireworks in store from Cleveland’s offense.
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