Fantasy Football Busts: Players You Should Considering Benching in Week 1
Which players are overvalued ahead of Week 1 of the fantasy football season?
Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. One of our markets is alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.
For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.
Up until opening kickoff, I’ll be sharing Week 1 sleepers and busts (for shallow and deep leagues) that you can use as a longshot on Fantom Odds (make sure to sign up for completely free Fantom Odds access at www.fantomodds.com). After sharing two Week 1 sleeper wideouts on Wednesday, let’s dive into two Week 1 wideouts that I think will disappoint.
Davante Adams UNDER 10.7 points +203 (ESPN)
Adams is currently projected for 14.3 points for Week 1 in ESPN PPR leagues, and I think he’s a strong candidate to go well under that number. When looking at Week 1 receiver busts, a good way to look is at wideouts who have changed teams or quarterbacks (or both). They’re still trying to grow chemistry with their new quarterback or figure out the new playbook, so there’s certainly the possibility they won’t be fully in sync right off the bat.
The Rams are Davante Adams’ third team in two seasons. In the Raiders’ 2024 season opener with a new starting quarterback in Gardner Minshew, Adams had five catches for 59 yards and zero touchdowns. In his first game with the Jets after he was traded, even with his buddy Aaron Rodgers under center, Adams had three catches for 30 yards.
Now Adams is with the Rams, where his presumed Week 1 starting quarterback, Matthew Stafford, has been dealing with a back injury that’s sidelined him since the beginning of training camp. Stafford is already in lockstep with Rams’ No. 1 wideout Puka Nacua, but him being out hasn’t allowed him to get reps and build chemistry with Adams.
As a result, I think Stafford (who will likely be less than 100% with his back) will be relying heavily on Nacua in Week 1, and Adams will have a quieter performance. It also doesn’t help Adams that the Rams are facing one of the best secondaries in the league in the Texans. If you have other viable options, I think Adams is worth sitting in your fantasy lineup Week 1.
Rome Odunze UNDER 8.1 points +202 (ESPN)
There’s a lot of excitement surrounding the Bears again, this time with Lions mastermind Ben Johnson taking over as head coach. We all saw what Johnson’s offenses looked like in Detroit, and there’s major optimism that he can fix the mess that was Year 1 of Caleb Williams in Chicago.
Odunze is projected for 11.7 points in ESPN PPR leagues for Week 1, and there are a few things that need to go right for Odunze to take a big step in Year 2 after a disappointing rookie campaign. First, Ben Johnson needs to revamp the offense, which might not happen right away. Second, Caleb Williams needs his game to grow considerably. And so does Odunze; after all, he finished with just 54 receptions (on 101 targets), 734 yards and three touchdowns in 17 games last season.
Just because the Bears spent high draft capital on Williams (No. 1 overall in 2024) and Odunze (No. 9 in 2024) doesn’t mean they’ll pan out, and Odunze could always not be the best fit in Johnson’s offensive system. After all, he’ll be competing with top wideout DJ Moore as well as rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland for targets.
The first matchup for the new-look Bears? It’s a tricky one, as they face Brian Flores and the Vikings. Flores is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the game, cooking up wild blitzes and coverages to confuse opposing quarterbacks. In two games against the Vikings last year, Odunze went 5-39-0 (on 10 targets) and 2-39-0 (on seven targets). We’ll see if Odunze ends up worth being a top-10 NFL draft pick, but this isn’t the defense I’d want to roll the dice against if I’m deciding whether to put him as a flex for Week 1.
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