It’s only Week 5, but with the rash of injuries and the first bye week of the season, there are already many fantasy owners tossing Hail Marys in their starting lineups. We saw one actually work out on Thursday night, with Kendrick Bourne snagging 10 receptions for 142 yards in the 49ers’ victory over the Rams.

So what can we learn from this if we need to roll the dice on another player this week? There was a good amount of uncertainty surrounding the 49ers’ offensive situation, which I would argue is a good thing for a Hail Mary-type play.

San Francisco had backup quarterback Mac Jones under center and was missing several top targets (Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle)—all of which opened the door for Bourne. It also helped that mastermind Kyle Shanahan was the one calling the plays.

With that in mind, my favorite Hail Mary play for the rest of Week 5 is Isaiah Bond.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. We offer markets such as matchup moneylines, alternate spreads, highest-scoring team in your league each week, and even alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Justin Jefferson’s ESPN projection in a PPR league is 16.37, meaning the true odds of Jefferson going over 21.8 points is +100 and going under 21.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Jefferson will have a monster performance against the Browns in Week 5 and you want to adjust his point total to 25.0. Jefferson over 25.0 points is now +546 at Fantom Odds, while Jefferson under 25.0 points is -546.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at https://www.fantomodds.com. I’d imagine people reading this post are definitely interested in fantasy football and at least somewhat interested in sports betting, so why not bring that sports betting element to your fantasy football leagues?

Anyway, back to Bond. There are already some encouraging signs for the rookie wideout, as Bond led the Browns with 58 receiving yards in Week 4. He ran 27 routes on Cleveland’s 37 dropbacks for that game. With Cedric Tillman on IR, Bond is likely now operating as the Browns’ No. 2 wide receiver.

Tillman led the entire NFL in routes run over the first two weeks of the season, and No. 1 wideout Jerry Jeudy was third overall in routes run heading into Week 5. Bond will have a big role, but will it lead to strong fantasy production?

Obviously there are uncertainties, which could give Bond even more upside or could end up leading to more downside. Dillon Gabriel makes his NFL debut, and it comes against a tough Brian Flores-called defense. But with an unknown commodity like a rookie QB making his debut, it ends up leading to higher variance—which is what I prefer from my Hail Mary play compared to a known situation.

The Browns committed real resources to both Gabriel and Bond. Gabriel was a third-round pick in this past NFL Draft. Bond was an UDFA because of legal issues, but Cleveland gave him an unprecedented $3 million guaranteed, a wildly high number for someone who wasn’t drafted. Kevin Stefanski obviously has some belief in the two of them, and he is in the circle of trust among head coaches who also call the plays. The Browns are in a full-blown rebuild, and they’re going to see what they have with rookies Gabriel, Bond, Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. for the rest of the season.

Betting on a Cleveland receiver doesn’t feel the best, but the bar is low for Gabriel to be an upgrade over Joe Flacco. The Browns did not score more than 17 points in any of the first four games this season with Flacco under center, as the 40-year-old QB had a miserable -0.33 EPA/play (expected points added per play), the worst mark of any NFL QB this season with at least 100 snaps.

Bond currently leads the Browns in average separation, thanks to his 4.3 speed. He was always viewed as a talented prospect and actually led Texas in yards per route run (2.68) last season when he was healthy, even over first-round teammate Matthew Golden (2.03).

Between his obvious talent and his current projected role, Bond is worth a roll of the dice for Week 5 if you’re trying to figure out an empty spot in your starting lineup. His receiving yardage prop has already been bet up from 25.5 to 28.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, meaning there are bettors who are bullish on Bond against the Vikings as well. If Gabriel ends up being better than expected, Bond could end up being a steal for the rest of the season.

Bond is currently listed at +200 to score more than 11.8 PPR points on Yahoo at Fantom Odds for Week 5, and I like him to exceed that amount.

Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for all of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.

We’ve entered Week 4 of the NFL season, and there are certainly many players that fantasy owners are panicking about after using early- or mid-round picks on them. But should you bench these struggling players in Week 4?

I have found three wide receivers who have struggled to start the season and who have seen their receiving yardage props already move significantly at sportsbooks for their Week 4 games (using a tool called Unabated to track odds movements throughout the week). I’m just a random fantasy lover who enjoys thoughtful write-ups, but I don’t expect my word alone to be gospel. I’d rather trust the smartest NFL bettors in the world who are putting real money down and moving these player prop lines.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. We offer markets such as matchup moneylines, alternate spreads, highest-scoring team in your league each week, and even alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Puka Nacua’s ESPN projection in a PPR league is 21.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 21.8 points is +100 and going under 21.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Nacua will have a monster performance against the Colts and you want to adjust his point total to 30.0. Nacua over 30.0 points is now +502 at Fantom Odds, while Nacua under 30.0 points is -502.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at https://www.fantomodds.com. I’d imagine people reading this post are definitely interested in fantasy football and at least somewhat interested in sports betting, so why not bring that sports betting element to your fantasy football leagues?

So here are two wideouts whose receiving yardage props have been bet up significantly and one who has already been bet down.

Ladd McConkey 58.5>57.5>63.5 (DraftKings)

McConkey was a second- or third-round pick in most fantasy drafts this season, with the premise that he would be the target hog for an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert. The good news is that the Chargers offense has been much more pass-heavy than anticipated, as they lead the entire NFL in pass rate over expectations. The bad news is that the competition for targets has been much stronger than what we thought.

Through the first three weeks, McConkey is third in targets (21) on the team, behind Keenan Allen (28) and Quentin Johnston (24). But per Fantasy Points Data, it’s a lot closer when it comes to first-read target shares, with Johnston (26.0%) barely edging out McConkey (24.7%) and Allen (23.4%).

McConkey has failed to reach 10 PPR points (5-48-0 in Week 2, 4-41-0 in Week 3) in consecutive weeks, but his receiving yardage prop has already been bet up from as low as 57.5 yards all the way up to 63.5 on DraftKings. For reference, Quentin Johnson’s prop sits at 53.5 and Keenan Allen’s is at 48.5.

I’m bullish on McConkey because he’s damn talented and an excellent route runner, and now he gets to play in a pass-heavy attack. Three weeks isn’t the biggest sample size, and target rates can certainly flip depending on a particular matchup. New York has a solid front seven but a weaker secondary, as the Giants have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts so far this season.

I’d imagine owners were begrudgingly starting McConkey in PPR leagues already for Week 4, while owners in standard leagues may have been debating it after three subpar-to-mediocre weeks from McConkey. I’d play him in every league this week, and I also think he gets his first touchdown of the season in this contest.

You can take McConkey over 16.0 ESPN PPR points at +212 on Fantom Odds with your leaguemates, and I think that’s a number he will exceed in Week 4.

Brian Thomas Jr. 66.5>59.5 (DraftKings)

Thomas Jr. may be the biggest enigma in fantasy football so far this season. After an insane rookie year, BTJ had a low first-round/high second-round ADP and many people were excited to see what he could do in a Liam Coen offense. BTJ ranks in the top 20 in targets, so he’s getting opportunities; he’s simply not making anything of those opportunities.

BTJ has been targeted 25 times this season and has just seven receptions. That 28% catch rate is historically low, as BTJ’s 28% ranks dead last among 522 pass-catchers who have seen at least 25+ targets through three weeks.

I think there are a couple reasons for this. BTJ has now played 13 games with Trevor Lawrence and has averaged 60 receiving yards in those contests. In 10 games with Mac Jones, BTJ has averaged 76 receiving yards. I also think BTJ’s wrist injury is worse than what’s being reported, as he’s been shying away from contact, and his alligator arms have been leading to killer drops.

The 49ers defense suffered a major blow, losing superstar pass-rusher Nick Bosa for the season with a torn ACL, but this is still a very talented unit led by sharp defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. If BTJ couldn’t do much against weaker units (1-11-0 against Panthers in Week 1, 4-49-0 against Bengals in Week 2), why should we trust him to turn things around here?

BTJ’s receiving yardage prop has already been bet down from 66.5 to 59.5 at DraftKings, so bettors aren’t the most optimistic about a Week 4 breakout. If you have another legit flex option, that player could be worth starting over BTJ this week. For reference, wide receivers like Jakobi Meyers (64.5) and Chris Olave (60.5) now have higher receiving yardage props for Week 4 at DraftKings compared to BTJ.

You can take BTJ under 11.0 ESPN PPR points at +201 on Fantom Odds. BTJ hasn’t hit double digits yet this season in PPR, and I don’t think he does it in Week 4 either.

Matthew Golden 34.5>44.5 (FanDuel)

Golden is the fringe starter that I have the strongest conviction for in Week 4. After compiling route rates of just 56% in Week 1 and 67% in Week 2, that number jumped all the way up to 83% in Week 3 in Green Bay’s first game without an injured Jayden Reed. The first-round rookie set career-best marks in receptions (4) and receiving yards (52) in that Week 3 performance against the Browns, and I think his arrow is pointing way up going forward—especially on Sunday night against a putrid Cowboys defense.

Teams have already completed 11 passes (on 16 attempts) 20+ yards through the air against this Cowboys defense, and those 11 completions have gone for 444 yards and five touchdowns. The next-worst team on deep passes of 20+ yards through the air is the Patriots at 230 yards surrendered, per Fantasy Points Data. Going against the Cowboys will be a fantasy goldmine all season long, and this seems like a perfect spot for Golden to get his first career NFL touchdown.

Golden’s receiving yardage prop at FanDuel has already been bet up from 34.5 to 44.5, the biggest swing on any receiving prop so far for Week 4. Whether you’re in a standard or PPR league, make sure to get Golden in your starting lineup this week.

I’m a big believer that Golden absolutely smashes on Sunday night, and you can take over 15.0 PPR points for him at +228 at Fantom Odds. If you wanted an even bigger longer shot, Golden over 20.0 PPR points sits at +602.

Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for all of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.

The NFL season is finally here. I will be doing start/sit pieces on the blog, but they will be a little bit different from the other ones out there.

First, these will be geared toward deeper leagues, so you won’t see something like, “Should you start or sit George Pickens against the Eagles?” These will be players that I think are legitimate interesting decisions in 12-team leagues with multiple flex spots.

Second, these will be a mix of sportsbook analysis with a little bit of my opinion mixed in for these start/sit decisions. I’m just a random fantasy lover who enjoys thoughtful write-ups, but I don’t expect my word alone to be gospel. So I will also be looking at line movement at sportsbooks to help determine if these players are worthy starts or sits.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. We offer markets such as matchup moneylines, alternate spreads, highest-scoring team in your league each week, and even alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at https://www.fantomodds.com. I’d imagine people reading this post are definitely interested in fantasy football and at least somewhat interested in sports betting, so why not bring that sports betting element to your fantasy football leagues?

Anyway, here is a start suggestion and a sit suggestion from me for Cowboys vs. Eagles.

START: Jake Ferguson

This was almost Dallas Goedert, as Goedert’s receiving yardage line has been bet up from 34.5 to 39.5 at FanDuel. There’s been over money on his receptions prop as well, going from 3.5 (over +106/under -140) to 3.5 (over -128/under -100). Moving the number on a reception prop (like 3.5 to 4.5) is a much bigger deal than moving a yardage prop a couple yards, so it’s a notable 34-cent move on that over.

But with Goedert, the thing I couldn’t shake is that his numbers weren’t nearly as good last year when AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were both healthy. When Brown and Smith both played, Goedert had 4.0 receptions and 47 receiving yards per game. When at least one of them was out, Goedert put up 5.4 receptions and 65 receiving yards per game. Starting Goedert isn’t the end of the world, but I prefer Ferguson here.

Like Goedert, Ferguson has seen over money come in on both his receiving yards prop (opened 33.5, went to as low as 32.5 and is now 36.5 at FanDuel) and his receptions prop (was 3.5 -114/-114 on Aug. 24, it’s now 3.5 -154/+120).

Ferguson finished with 24 receiving yards, which actually led the Cowboys, in his first meeting with the Eagles last season and then followed that up with 18 yards. Both of those, though, were with Cooper Rush at quarterback with Dak Prescott on injured reserve, so I’m not taking those results into account. The Eagles have great corners in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, but they’re going to be mostly occupied with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. I think that will open things up for Ferguson.

The Cowboys are 8.5-point road underdogs and Dak Prescott’s passing yardage prop (243.5 to 251.5) and pass attempts prop (35.5 to 36.5) have both been bet up. With the projected game script and the Cowboys’ current offensive personnel, it’s easy to envision Dallas throwing the ball a lot this game. I think Ferguson will have a productive evening and is worth a start.

Ferguson is projected for 8.4 PPR points in Yahoo for Week 1. On Fantom Odds, his odds are +203 if he scores more than 12 points. It may take garbage time, but I think he gets there.

SIT: Javonte Williams

Owners in more shallow leagues may be laughing at this one, but Williams is ranked 118th on Yahoo and could very well be in consideration for a flex spot for someone who rolled the dice on a suspended player or waited too long at running back. He is, after all, Dallas’ Week 1 starting running back, so on paper, I do see the potential appeal on the surface for favoring him over other flex options. Also, it’s fun having a player on your fantasy team on opening night of the NFL season.

When DraftKings first released player props for this game on Aug. 23, Williams’ rushing yards prop opened at 34.5. He was bet up to 42.5 on Aug. 26. Jaydon Blue’s low right ankle sprain that he suffered on Aug. 22 was likely the key factor there, as bettors were expecting a bigger role for Williams in Week 1.

But Williams’ rushing yards prop is now back down, as it’s been bouncing between 33.5 and 34.5 throughout the day at DraftKings. Blue is no longer listed on the injury report, and he’s a real threat to have a meaningful role in this game. Williams’ rushing attempts prop has also been bet down from 11.5 to 9.5 at DraftKings, which is also concerning for fantasy owners.

Williams just hasn’t had the same burst since his torn ACL in his second season in 2022. The Eagles also allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs last season. The Eagles also led the NFL in time of possession last season. This could very well be a game where the Eagles (as a big favorite) dominate the snaps and are up by a considerable amount, meaning fewer opportunities for Williams. This is already an ugly committee between Williams, Blue and Myles Sanders, and this isn’t the defense I want to roll the dice with on one of them.

Williams is currently +200 to score a touchdown tonight on FanDuel. He’s projected for 11.4 PPR points in Yahoo for Week 1 as well. If you don’t think he scores a touchdown, which I don’t think he will, an alternative under of 7.9 points at +201 odds looks like a good value to me at Fantom Odds.

Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for all of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.

I’m a big fan of drafting running backs early in fantasy drafts this year, simply because there are so many wide receivers I like in the middle and later rounds. As we enter the final few days of fantasy drafts before the NFL season kicks off, there is one wideout in particular whose draft price is very puzzling to me—Darnell Mooney.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. One of our markets is alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at www.fantomodds.com. Now I’ll explain why Mooney is one of the best later-round picks you can make in your fantasy drafts.

Mooney’s preseason ranking is currently 130 on Yahoo and 110 on ESPN, and his average ADP on Underdog is 104.0. Yes, Mooney is not 100% healthy since he’s been sidelined with a shoulder injury since July. But this does not appear to be a long-term injury, as Falcons coach Raheem Morris even said on Monday that Mooney is “day to day.” He’s going after other wideouts with more concerning injury question marks, like Chris Godwin and Jayden Reed.

Outside of an injury that won’t cause Mooney to miss much time in the regular season, if any time at all, there is certainly a lot to like about a wide receiver you can get in a double-digit round.

Let’s start with his production last year. After Mooney had six catches for 142 yards in Week 14 against the Vikings, he was eighth in the NFL in receiving yards with 873. In ninth place was Drake London at 866. Let me emphasize this even more: Heading into Week 15 (in the middle of December) last season, Mooney led the Falcons in receiving yards and only seven NFL wideouts had more receiving yards than him (Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Jeudy, JSN, McLaurin and Garrett Wilson).

London had more receptions and the edge in receiving touchdowns (six to Mooney’s five) after Week 14, but the overall gap between these two was not significant. If you want to cut it down the middle and use half-PPR, in games that Mooney and London played together last season, London was the WR20 and Mooney was the WR35. Using Underdog ADP for this upcoming season, London is the WR9 and Mooney is the WR52. I like London a lot for this season, but that gap should not be what it is, and I think Mooney should be selected much earlier in fantasy drafts.

Let’s discuss why I’m bullish on Mooney for this season, though. This is Mooney’s second year with the Falcons and in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s offense. Michael Penix Jr. was Atlanta’s starting quarterback to end last season, and I think his tendencies suit Mooney well. According to Pro Football Focus, Mooney had the third-most catches (14) on deep attempts in the entire NFL last season, and that was obviously mostly with Cousins throwing to him. In Penix Jr.’s three games last season, he ranked first in big throw rate (9.4%) and average depth of target (10.6). Penix Jr. likes to air it out, and Mooney is the clear top option to be his favorite deep threat.

Mooney doesn’t have much competition among the Falcons’ pass-catchers. London is the obvious No. 1. The No. 3 wideout is Ray-Ray McCloud after the Falcons surprisingly didn’t add to their receiving corps this offseason. There’s tight end Kyle Pitts, but Mooney crushed him in targets (106 to 74) in 2024 despite playing one fewer game.

Atlanta also has a favorable schedule, as the Falcons will play 12 games in a dome this season and nine of their games come against opponents who ranked in the bottom third (No. 21-32) in defensive EPA/pass in 2024.

There are just a lot of positives for Mooney’s fantasy case, and you can still grab him in a double-digit round. He may not be the sexiest name, but he is someone who can be the second pass-catching option in a very explosive offense. In Mooney’s top two seasons, his quarterbacks most of the time were Justin Fields and a past-his-prime Kirk Cousins. I think Penix Jr. is a big upgrade over both of them, and that Mooney will handsomely pay off at his ADP price because of it.

Mooney is projected for 9.5 PPR points on Yahoo for Week 1 when the Falcons face the Buccaneers. In his two battles against Tampa Bay last season, Mooney had 9-105-2 and 4-86-1 efforts. With both defenses having a fair share of question marks, this game in the dome has shootout written all over it. If Mooney plays (and it’s trending that way), I like him to go OVER 13.1 PPR points at +203 odds via Fantom Odds in Week 1.

Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for all of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.

On Thursday, we went over the notable odds shifts at sportsbooks (75 yards or more) on season-long receiving yardage props. Simply put, we want to try and gain insight as to what the smartest NFL bettors in the world believe about how wideouts and tight ends will fare this upcoming season.

Now we’ll do the same thing for season-long rushing yards that have moved by at least 75 yards from their opener. If you’re not as familiar with how sports betting works, let’s say FanDuel has Bijan Robinson at 1200.5 for his season-long rushing yardage prop. If you bet over 1200.5, you’d need Robinson to finish with 1,201 rushing yards or more during the regular season to win your bet. With under 1200.5, Robinson would have to end up with 1,200 rushing yards or fewer.

To help identify potential players to draft and fade, I looked at the odds history for every season-long player prop at FanDuel and DraftKings (using a sports betting tool called Unabated) and took note of every notable move from the opening (original) number for season-long rushing props.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. We offer markets such as matchup moneylines, alternate spreads, highest-scoring team in your league each week, and even alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at https://www.fantomodds.com. I’d imagine people reading this post are definitely interested in fantasy football and at least somewhat interested in sports betting, so why not bring that sports betting element to your fantasy football leagues? Anyway, onto the notable odds shifts for season-long receiving props.

Obvious Moves from Team Roster Changes/Suspensions/Injuries

Tony Pollard 875.5>975.5>950.5 (FanDuel)

This movement is clearly due to the Tyjae Spears injury, as Spears will miss at least the first four games of the season with an ankle injury. In the four games that Spears missed last season, Pollard averaged 116.2 yards per game. He is going to dominate backfield touches early in the season and he’ll get to do with a massive upgrade at quarterback with Cam Ward (instead of last year’s duo of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph). I’m bullish on the Titans overall this season, and I’d be happy if I left my draft with Pollard as my RB2.

Unfavorable Backfield Splits Ahead?

Breece Hall 950.5>850.5 (FanDuel)
Aaron Jones 775.5>700.5 (FanDuel)
Rhamondre Stevenson 700.5>625.5 (DraftKings)
Javonte Williams 575.5>500.5 (DraftKings)

These are veteran running backs who were once very early fantasy picks and now reside in the dead zone. Keep in mind that these props were first released after Jordan Mason was traded to the Vikings and after the NFL Draft. So bettors are even more pessimistic about these rushing totals with exciting younger backs (Mason, TreVeyon Henderson, Jaydon Blue) waiting in the wings.

Breece Hall has the highest ADP (45.7 on Underdog) of this bunch, and he’s also one of two players whose season-long rushing yardage prop has dropped by 100 yards. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his rookie season before his torn ACL and has put up 4.5 and 4.2 YPC in the following two seasons. He just doesn’t look like he has the same explosiveness.

New head coach Aaron Glenn has stated that he wants to utilize all three Jets running backs (Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis). He saw an RB committee work beautifully while he was the defensive coordinator in Detroit with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. If Hall is splitting reps on a Jets team that projects to be one of the lower-scoring teams in the NFL, there just isn’t that much upside to be excited about. I’m not interested in taking Hall in the fourth round in fantasy drafts.

Rookie Ramblings

TreVeyon Henderson 625.5>700.5 (FanDuel)
Kaleb Johnson 750.5>675.5 (DraftKings)

I would argue that Henderson was the biggest non-injury fantasy winner this preseason. He looked like he was playing at a different speed compared to everyone else on the field. Bettors are clearly drinking the Kool-Aid as well with Henderson.

Are you nervous about drafting a player (Henderson has a 42.8 Underdog ADP) in the third or fourth round with a season-long rushing yardage total at 700.5? No one sees Henderson as an immediate bell cow with Rhamondre Stevenson on the team, but he can definitely pay off at that price since he’s also a receiving threat. Running backs have posted big receiving numbers in Josh McDaniels’ offenses before (with James White being the prime example), and Henderson showed strong receiving chops at Ohio State. He looks like a special talent, and I’m taking him over Breece Hall every time. In full PPR leagues, I don’t think it’s crazy to take Henderson over guys like James Cook (39.3 ADP) or Kyren Williams (31.5 ADP).

Kaleb Johnson, on the other hand, has not been getting the same rookie buzz. Fantasy owners were probably already wary about the fact that the Steelers’ third-round pick is playing in an Arthur Smith offense. After all, this is the same guy who coached Bijan Robinson in his rookie campaign, and Robinson only finished with 976 rushing yards after being stuck in a committee (compared to 1,456 in Year 2).

It’s interesting to note that Jaylen Warren’s season-long rushing yardage prop has stayed put at 600.5 despite Johnson’s dropping 75 yards. We know how much Aaron Rodgers likes throwing to running backs, and Warren is certainly a capable pass-catcher. He’s also one of the better pass-blocking tailbacks in the NFL. We’ll see how much playing time Johnson gets, but bettors clearly aren’t super optimistic about his situation.

Saquon Sequel?

Saquon Barkley 1485.5>1375.5 (FanDuel)

The biggest season-long rushing yards shift belongs to Barkley, as it’s dropped 110 yards from the opener. He still has the highest season-long rushing yards prop of any player, with Derrick Henry coming in second at 1325.5.

People are nervous about Barkley with all the touches he racked up last season, and there hasn’t been a running back who has run for 1,500 yards the season after rushing for 2,000 yards (the closest was Barry Sanders at 1,491 in 1998). But 1,500 is an incredibly tough number for any running back to reach; only Barkley (2,008) and Henry (1,921) did so last season. No one reached that mark the season before.

Barkley is still 28 years old, and I think he’ll have more receiving upside with the Eagles facing a tougher schedule this season. If you remove the Eagles’ Week 18 win when they rested all their starters against the Giants, nine of their other 17 wins last season were by double digits. They didn’t need to throw as much in the fourth quarter, and that likely won’t be the case with a schedule that features 11 games against teams in the top 14 in Super Bowl odds.

There are risks with the other top running backs too. We don’t know how the Lions offense will look without Ben Johnson. The Falcons offensive line has already had a couple key injuries. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson will cede more touches to David Montgomery and Tyler Allgeier than Barkley will to any other Eagle. In half-PPR leagues, I’m taking Barkley over Robinson and Gibbs. Even though his season-long rushing yardage prop has dropped considerably, he’s still the betting favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards and I still have a lot of trust in the Eagles offense.

Dual-Threat Quarterbacks

Justin Fields 575.5>650.5 (DraftKings)
Drake Maye 425.5>500.5 (DraftKings)

In leagues that award four points for passing touchdowns (and not six), quarterbacks with strong rushing production reign supreme. That’s the big reason why Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts are your top four quarterbacks.

But for cheaper quarterback options, Fields and Maye are two that I like. Maye showed immense promise in his rookie season despite everything else with the Patriots looking like a disaster. Fields is a better fantasy quarterback than real-life quarterback, but there is certainly a chance that he could finish with the most rushing yards of any signal-caller. Only Lamar Jackson (775.5) and Jayden Daniels (675.5) have higher season-long rushing yardage props than Fields.

Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for all of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.

Fantasy football and sports betting go hand in hand, especially with how popular player prop betting has become at sportsbooks. Many of the top sportsbooks offer season-long player props ahead of opening kickoff, meaning you can wager on whether a player goes over or under his yardage or touchdown market for the regular season.

For example, FanDuel has Ja’Marr Chase’s season-long receiving yards prop at 1325.5. If you bet Chase over 1325.5 yards, he needs to have 1326 receiving yards or more during the regular season to win your bet. If you opt for Chase under 1325.5 yards, you need Chase to finish with 1325 receiving yards or fewer.

As someone who worked at sportsbooks for five years, I can tell you that prop markets (including season-long props) are softer than other markets such as straight bets (spread, moneyline, total). That means that sportsbooks have lower limits (the maximum amount you can wager) on player props and it doesn’t take nearly as much for player prop odds to move compared to an NFL game spread.

But I still think it’s interesting to see the odds moves for these season-long player props, because it gives good insight into what some of the best bettors in the world are thinking. Additionally, we can use these insights to our advantage, especially for those who have drafts coming up over the next week.

So I looked at the odds history for every season-long player prop at FanDuel and DraftKings (using a sports betting tool called Unabated) and took note of every move that was at least 75.5 yards from the opening (original) number. For today, let’s look at the notable season-long receiving yards moves. Make sure to subscribe to Fantom Thoughts to see the post on notable season-long rushing yards moves later this week.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. We offer markets such as matchup moneylines, alternate spreads, highest-scoring team in your league each week, and even alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at https://www.fantomodds.com. I’d imagine people reading this post are definitely interested in fantasy football and at least somewhat interested in sports betting, so why not bring a new sports betting element to your fantasy football leagues? Anyway, onto the notable odds shifts for season-long receiving props.

Obvious Moves from Team Roster Changes/Suspensions/Injuries

Emeka Egbuka 650.5>825.5 (FanDuel)
Mike Evans 875.5>1000.5 (FanDuel)
Ricky Pearsall 750.5>875.5 (DraftKings)
Jordan Addison 775.5>650.5 (DraftKings)
Xavier Worthy 800.5>900.5>875.5 (FanDuel)

Egbuka has been one of the biggest ADP movers in fantasy football, and it’s the same with his season-long receiving yards prop. He and Evans are the likely benefactors while Chris Godwin works his way back from a dislocated ankle injury and Jalen McMillan is sidelined with a severely sprained neck.

Pearsall is interesting, and it feels like many fantasy owners are opting for Egbuka over Pearsall of late with their current ADPs quite similar (Pearsall is 59.3 on Underdog, Egbuka is 59.5—and I bet Egbuka has a better ADP before the season kicks off). But Pearsall’s season-long receiving yards prop is 50 yards higher than Egbuka’s, and keep in mind that those odds were first released after the 49ers traded Deebo Samuel. But with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings’ early-season statuses in question, bettors have been zeroing in on the second-year wideout. To compare, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop has actually dropped (950.5 to 900.5 on FanDuel) and Christian McCaffrey’s has slightly increased (400.5 to 425.5 on FD).

Addison’s three-game suspension is the reason for his prop falling, while Worthy’s reached as high as 900.5 before coming back down slightly to 875.5—I’m assuming that’s because there were rumors that Rashee Rice would be suspended for as many as eight games and he ended up getting suspended for six.

Same Team, but Different Directions

DJ Moore 1025.5>950.5 (FanDuel)
Rome Odunze 800.5>875.5 (DraftKings)

Tyreek Hill 1025.5>950.5 (FanDuel)
Jaylen Waddle 850.5>925.5 (DraftKings)

The vibes surrounding Hill have not been good this entire offseason, and his fantasy ADP and season-long receiving yards prop movements reflect that. But even with those changes, Hill (Underdog ADP 26.7) is still a much more expensive pick than Waddle (Underdog ADP 55.0) despite their receiving yardage props being separated by a mere 25 yards. For me, I’m fading Hill in the third round of my drafts and strongly buying Waddle in the fifth (I’d be interested in the late fourth too).

The ADP gap between Moore (48.8) and Odunze (63.5) is closer than Hill and Waddle’s, even though their receiving yard props are separated by 75 yards (while Hill and Waddle are separated by 25). The target competition for the Bears has gone up with Chicago adding Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III in the draft, so it’s interesting to see Odunze’s season-long prop increase by 75 yards.

Former OPOY and an OPOY Darkhorse

Cooper Kupp 775.5>675.5 (DraftKings)
Drake London 1025.5>1125.5 (FanDuel)

It’s pretty crazy that Kupp won Offensive Player of the Year in 2021, as it feels much longer ago than that. He’s missed at least five games in each of the next three seasons and now gets a chance to restart with a new NFC West team in the Seahawks. Kupp’s injury history and age (32) are already two major negatives, but I’m not sold on his quarterback situation either. I’m curious to see how Sam Darnold looks without quarterback guru Kevin O’Connell as his head coach. If Darnold bombs, the Seahawks just drafted Jalen Milroe in the third round. Milroe is a threat with his legs but is more of a raw passer. It’d be a disaster for Kupp (and Jaxon Smith-Njibga) if Milroe gets any time at quarterback this season. For me, Kupp is a complete fade this season.

After opening at 1025.5, London at 1125.5 has a higher season-long receiving yards prop than Amon-Ra St. Brown (1075.5), the same as AJ Brown (1125.5) and awfully close to Malik Nabers (1150.5), Brian Thomas Jr. (1150.5) and Nico Collins (1150.5). London averaged 117.3 receiving yards per game in three Michael Penix Jr. starts last season compared to 65.6 in the 14 Kirk Cousins starts. He isn’t getting the same fantasy love as some other early wideouts, but based on his sportsbook odds and prop movement, you can argue he deserves to be in at least the same breath as any wideout for fantasy not named Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. I think London at 50/1 for OPOY is a very solid longshot bet (currently available at DraftKings).

The Only Tight End

Tyler Warren 500.5>575.5 (DraftKings)

Warren joins Egbuka as the rookies that are the major movers for season-long receiving yards props. But while Egbuka’s shift was largely due to other injuries, Warren has looked like a bonafide star in the preseason and could end up being the Colts’ No. 1 target in their passing attack. While it’s an offense quarterbacked by Daniel Jones (and maybe Anthony Richardson at some point), Warren offers an upside that few other tight ends can match.

Now should there be a notable ADP gap between Warren (91.6) and the other first-round rookie tight end, Colston Loveland (109.4)? After all, Warren and Loveland both have receiving yard props of 575.5 at DraftKings. Loveland’s receiving yards prop is actually wildly different across the board, though. If you want a decent middle opportunity, you can take Loveland over 550.5 yards (-114) at FanDuel and Loveland under 625.5 yards (-120) at Caesars.

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It was a big day for NFL tight ends on Tuesday, as Travis Kelce announced his engagement to Taylor Swift. So let’s celebrate with a tight ends post here at Fantom Thoughts, specifically a late-round tight end that I think is currently being extremely undervalued.

I’d say my recommended fantasy strategy for tight ends this season is either take one of the three elite options early (Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle) or punt on the position entirely until the double-digit rounds. This tight end I’m going to highlight works with either strategy because he’s going so late in drafts. So he can either be a safer backup option to one of the elite tight ends or potentially end up as an upside play who you could start early in the season if you wait on a tight end.

My favorite late-round tight end this season is Cade Otton, and let’s dive into why.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. One of our markets is alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at www.fantomodds.com. Now I’ll explain why I’m taking Cade Otton late in every fantasy draft I’ve been doing.

When looking for late-round darts for tight end, it’s different than for running backs. With running backs, you want to target players late who could be an injury away from getting valuable touches in a good offense. With tight ends, starting tight ends still go late in fantasy drafts, so ideally you want one who is on the field often. The more snaps a tight end gets, the more routes he’s running, the more targets he could earn and the more fantasy points he could wind up getting.

When it comes to snap count percentages (via Pro Football Reference), here are the top 5 from last season. Tied for fifth at 85% were Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta and Tucker Kraft. Fourth was George Kittle at 86%. Third was Cole Kmet at 88%. Second was Trey McBride at 90%. First, as you could probably guess by now, was Cade Otton at 92%.

Look at the names on that list. Bowers, Kittle and McBride are the clear top three tight ends this season, and LaPorta is the consensus No. 4. Tucker Kraft has been mentioned frequently as one of the top tight end “sleepers” for this season. Kmet would be more interesting if the Bears didn’t draft Colston Loveland with the No. 10 overall pick, with Loveland being viewed as another top sleeper.

So why isn’t Otton getting any love? He is still the TE22 on Underdog with an average ADP of 176.9. And that 92% snap count percentage isn’t a fluke; he was at 97% for the 2023 season as well. He finished sixth among all tight ends in routes run in 2024 despite missing three games and was second in this stat in 2023 when he played all 17 games.

Now I would get it if Otton played in a bad offense or didn’t produce at all, but both of those aren’t the case. Otton took a nice step in target share in his third NFL season in 2024, going up from 12.2% in 2023 (his second NFL season) to 19.0%.

Otton particularly shined after Mike Evans reaggravated a hamstring injury halfway through the second quarter against the Ravens in Week 7, causing Evans to miss the second half of that contest as well as the next three games. Chris Godwin also suffered a dislocated left ankle at the end of that Ravens game, which ended his season.

Starting with that Ravens contest, here were Otton’s targets in that 4-game stretch: 10, 10, 11 and 8.

This is already a Buccaneers pass-catching group that will be without Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan at the start of the season. First-round rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka’s ADP has soared over the past few weeks, but certainly not all first-year receivers hit the ground running. Otton is a guy that Mayfield has trusted in the past and has fantasy upside in an explosive passing attack on a team with a bad defense.

Otton faces the Falcons in Week 1 and is projected for 7.0 PPR points in a game with high shootout potential. The Falcons offense was humming with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that this game is being played in a dome. The Falcons’ defense gave up the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, and Otton had 11 catches for 125 yards and two scores in his meetings against them in 2024.

At Fantom Odds, you can get Otton over 10.6 PPR points at +203 odds. Considering it’s a potential high-scoring game where Otton will find himself as the third option at worst, you can do worse than giving him a start in Week 1 at tight end if you didn’t pony up early for the position.

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Jacory Croskey-Merritt fever has swept the fantasy football nation over the past couple of weeks. After JCM’s average Underdog ADP in mid-July was 215.1, it’s now at 124.3. If you’re reading this, the time to draft him has already passed. Everyone knows who JCM is, and in your home leagues, he’s probably going to go in a single-digit round since he’s at the top of everyone’s sleeper list.

With many people still having upcoming drafts, the top late-round targets have changed considerably throughout this month. I have two current favorite deep sleepers, one at running back and the other at wide receiver—and they’re ones who haven’t shot up the ranks like JCM has (yet). We’ll also check out their Week 1 odds at Fantom Odds and share why they could exceed their projections early.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. One of our markets is alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Anyone is able to use Fantom Odds for any league for completely free this season, so make sure to sign up at www.fantomodds.com. Now let’s share some deep sleepers.

Ollie Gordon (Current Underdog ADP: 176.0, Week 1 PPR projection: 1.19 points)

All of the JCM love has helped steer away some of the intrigue surrounding Gordon, a fascinating rookie in his own right.

JCM played college football from 2019 to 2024, entered as a 0-star recruit, and had just one season where he rushed for more than 500 yards (1,190 in 2023 with New Mexico). Gordon, meanwhile, was a 4-star recruit and was the best running back in college football in 2023. Gordon won the Doak Walker award after rushing for 1,732 yards (6.1 YPC) and 21 touchdowns in his sophomore campaign at Oklahoma State.

Gordon had an injury-riddled junior season in which he ran for just 880 yards, a key factor as to why he fell to the sixth round of the NFL Draft. But like JCM, he did land in a very intriguing spot.

The Dolphins do have their fair share of issues, but Mike McDaniel is still an innovative offensive mind who can put his top guys in favorable positions with pre-snap motion and unique formations. Ahead of Gordon on the depth chart is Devon Achane, who has been dealing with a calf injury, an injury that can be a nuisance all season. Gordon could very well be the No. 2 back in Miami since he was superior to Jaylen Wright in preseason (Gordon 4.8 YPC, Wright 1.5 YPC), and Wright is now considered “week to week” with an undisclosed injury.

Gordon has the past pedigree and a potential path to valuable touches in a potent Dolphins offense. Would I take him straight up over JCM right now? No. Would I rather have him a few rounds later? Yes. I’m not leaving any draft without Gordon, even if it means reaching a round or two early.

Gordon and the Dolphins play the Colts in Week 1. Even if Achane is playing, I think Gordon can get more than 4.8 PPR points (at +203 on Fantom Odds) given that Miami won’t want to give Achane a full workload immediately after coming back from the calf injury.

Jalen Coker (Current Underdog ADP: 194.7, Week 1 PPR projection: 6.06 points)

With how the NFL and fantasy football are covered, I think it’s tough to pick offenses that you truly feel are underrated heading into the season. But for my money’s worth (though this blog is free, so take it with a grain of salt), the Panthers’ offense is underrated coming into this season.

Maybe it’s because Carolina has won seven games total in the past two seasons, or people can’t get rookie-year Bryce Young out of their minds—but this should be a fantasy-relevant offense, and its players are currently being underpriced.

Young was a different quarterback after his early-season benching in Year 2. In his final nine starts, he was PFF’s seventh-best graded quarterback and ranked 14th in EPA over that span. Young may never be the elite quarterback the Panthers thought when they took him No. 1 overall, but he definitely looked a lot more comfortable in the pocket when he came back from his benching and made several impressive throws when he was being pressured.

The Panthers have a stout offensive line and legitimate weapons for Young with Chuba Hubbard and first-round rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan. Carolina’s defense also projects as one of the worst, if not the worst, in the NFL. A solid offense and a poor defense is a great formula for a shootout team, and I think the Panthers will get their fair share of garbage time opportunities.

Now onto Coker—I think there is a real chance he emerges as the Panthers’ No. 2 wideout. Veteran Adam Thielen has been the subject of trade rumors, and I think Carolina wants to give its younger wideouts more snaps. While Xavier Legette was Carolina’s 2024 first-round pick at wideout, you can certainly argue that undrafted wideout Jalen Coker had the better rookie year.

Legette had 38 more targets than Coker but finished with only 19 more receiving yards. Coker had the superior yards per route run (1.67 to 1.15) and has looked superior in the preseason. Higher draft capital is Legette’s advantage, but he can’t rely on that much longer if Coker continues to outplay him.

Coker is projected for 6.06 PPR points in Week 1, and I think the Panthers-Jaguars matchup has a good chance at being a shootout. Coker over 9.6 points is +201 at Fantom Odds, and I think he will be one of many players who offer solid fantasy value in this Panthers-Jaguars matchup.

Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for all of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.

Here at Fantom Odds, we create customized odds for your fantasy football leagues (ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper) for you and your leaguemates to use. One of our markets is alternate over/under player fantasy points, where you can adjust a player’s final fantasy point tally to whatever number of your choosing and the odds will adjust.

For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Up until opening kickoff, I’ll be sharing Week 1 sleepers and busts (for shallow and deep leagues) that you can use as a longshot on Fantom Odds (make sure to sign up for completely free Fantom Odds access at www.fantomodds.com). After sharing two Week 1 sleeper wideouts on Wednesday, let’s dive into two Week 1 wideouts that I think will disappoint.

Davante Adams UNDER 10.7 points +203 (ESPN)

Adams is currently projected for 14.3 points for Week 1 in ESPN PPR leagues, and I think he’s a strong candidate to go well under that number. When looking at Week 1 receiver busts, a good way to look is at wideouts who have changed teams or quarterbacks (or both). They’re still trying to grow chemistry with their new quarterback or figure out the new playbook, so there’s certainly the possibility they won’t be fully in sync right off the bat.

The Rams are Davante Adams’ third team in two seasons. In the Raiders’ 2024 season opener with a new starting quarterback in Gardner Minshew, Adams had five catches for 59 yards and zero touchdowns. In his first game with the Jets after he was traded, even with his buddy Aaron Rodgers under center, Adams had three catches for 30 yards.

Now Adams is with the Rams, where his presumed Week 1 starting quarterback, Matthew Stafford, has been dealing with a back injury that’s sidelined him since the beginning of training camp. Stafford is already in lockstep with Rams’ No. 1 wideout Puka Nacua, but him being out hasn’t allowed him to get reps and build chemistry with Adams.

As a result, I think Stafford (who will likely be less than 100% with his back) will be relying heavily on Nacua in Week 1, and Adams will have a quieter performance. It also doesn’t help Adams that the Rams are facing one of the best secondaries in the league in the Texans. If you have other viable options, I think Adams is worth sitting in your fantasy lineup Week 1.

Rome Odunze UNDER 8.1 points +202 (ESPN)

There’s a lot of excitement surrounding the Bears again, this time with Lions mastermind Ben Johnson taking over as head coach. We all saw what Johnson’s offenses looked like in Detroit, and there’s major optimism that he can fix the mess that was Year 1 of Caleb Williams in Chicago.

Odunze is projected for 11.7 points in ESPN PPR leagues for Week 1, and there are a few things that need to go right for Odunze to take a big step in Year 2 after a disappointing rookie campaign. First, Ben Johnson needs to revamp the offense, which might not happen right away. Second, Caleb Williams needs his game to grow considerably. And so does Odunze; after all, he finished with just 54 receptions (on 101 targets), 734 yards and three touchdowns in 17 games last season.

Just because the Bears spent high draft capital on Williams (No. 1 overall in 2024) and Odunze (No. 9 in 2024) doesn’t mean they’ll pan out, and Odunze could always not be the best fit in Johnson’s offensive system. After all, he’ll be competing with top wideout DJ Moore as well as rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland for targets.

The first matchup for the new-look Bears? It’s a tricky one, as they face Brian Flores and the Vikings. Flores is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the game, cooking up wild blitzes and coverages to confuse opposing quarterbacks. In two games against the Vikings last year, Odunze went 5-39-0 (on 10 targets) and 2-39-0 (on seven targets). We’ll see if Odunze ends up worth being a top-10 NFL draft pick, but this isn’t the defense I’d want to roll the dice against if I’m deciding whether to put him as a flex for Week 1.

Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for each of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.

For instance, Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 Yahoo projection in a PPR league is 19.8, meaning the true odds of Chase going over 19.8 points is +100 and going under 19.8 points is +100. But let’s say you think Chase will have a monster performance against the Browns and you want to adjust his point total to 28.0. Chase over 28.0 points is now +501 at Fantom Odds, while Chase under 28.0 points is -501.

Up until opening kickoff, I’ll be sharing Week 1 sleepers and busts (for shallow and deep leagues) that I like to either greatly exceed or greatly disappoint compared to their projections—and potentially use as a longshot on Fantom Odds (make sure to sign up for completely free Fantom Odds access at www.fantomodds.com). Let’s start off with two Week 1 sleepers today.

Shallow leagues: Matthew Golden OVER 19.0 fantasy points +502 (Yahoo)

Golden is projected for 10.78 PPR points on Yahoo, but I think the rookie wideout could be in for a big debut. After all, Golden was the Packers’ first wideout to be taken in the first round since the 2002 NFL Draft (Javon Walker).

Not only has Golden been getting rave reviews at training camp and in the preseason, but the other Green Bay wideouts are dropping like flies. Jayden Reed (foot), Romeo Doubs (back) and Dontayvion Wicks (calf) have all been sidelined, while Christian Watson is still recovering from a late-season ACL injury last year. That has allowed Golden to get more reps in with the first team, and he’s been on the field in the Packers’ two-wideout sets (the formation Jayden Reed has notably been absent for).

Golden also gets a potentially juicy matchup against the Lions. The Lions’ defense was decimated by injuries last season, and they’ve already lost second-year cornerback Ennis Rakestraw for this season. Since mid-July, Detroit has added five cornerbacks to the roster, as the team is still trying to juggle its pieces in the secondary.

Lions-Packers has the second-highest Week 1 total (over/under 49.5 points), only behind Ravens-Bills at 51.5. This could certainly be a shootout, and I think Jordan Love and the Green Bay passing attack will bounce back after Love was hurt throughout last season. Love has returned from thumb surgery, and I think Golden will continue to develop a good rapport with him with the other wideouts nursing injuries.

Deep leagues: Cedric Tillman OVER 14.7 fantasy points +513 (Yahoo)

The Browns’ receivers got some good news this week that Joe Flacco will be the Week 1 starter. Flacco may be 40 years old, but he can still sling the pigskin around. The Browns offense certainly isn’t a sexy one to the fantasy masses, but this group could have sneaky upside potential against a Bengals defense that appears to be a mess once again.

Tillman flashed in his second season in Cleveland, as he had a three-game stretch of 8-81-0 (against the Bengals), 7-99-2 (against the Ravens) and 6-75-1 (against the Chargers) with gunslinger Jameis Winston under center for the last two games. Tillman suffered a concussion that caused him to miss the final six games of the 2024 season and has turned him into a bit of an afterthought among the fantasy community ahead of the 2025 campaign.

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Tillman has shown that he can emerge as a top option, and I’m definitely a lot more intrigued by the Browns’ passing attack with Flacco compared to if Cleveland opted for Kenny Pickett as the Week 1 starter. There should be a lot of Bengals shootouts this year, and there could be early fireworks in store from Cleveland’s offense.

Ready to enhance your fantasy football experience? Sign up for Fantom Odds (fantomodds.com) to have free customized odds for each of your Yahoo/ESPN/Sleeper fantasy football leagues.

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